# compare to # http://joannenova.com.au/2010/03/the-bom-csiro-report-its-what-they-dont-say-that-matters/ # # the monthly hadcrut data from the UK MET site # http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly hadcrut3 <- read.table("hadcrut-monthly.bin") ly <- hadcrut3[,1] + hadcrut3[,2]/12 - 1/12 l1 <- "Jan 1860 - Dec 1880" t1 <- hadcrut3[121:372,3] y1 <- ly[121:372] m1 <- lm(t1 ~ y1)$coeff[2] b1 <- lm(t1 ~ y1)$coeff[1] d1 <- (y1)*m1 + b1 l1 <- paste(l1, sprintf("%.3f",m1*12),"C/decade") l2 <- "Jan 1910 - Dec 1940" t2 <- hadcrut3[721:1092,3] y2 <- ly[721:1092] m2 <- lm(t2 ~ y2)$coeff[2] b2 <- lm(t2 ~ y2)$coeff[1] d2 <- (y2)*m2 + b2 l2 <- paste(l2, sprintf("%.3f",m2*12),"C/decade") l3 <- "Jan 1975 - Dec 1998" t3 <- hadcrut3[1501:1788,3] y3 <- ly[1501:1788] m3 <- lm(t3 ~ y3)$coeff[2] b3 <- lm(t3 ~ y3)$coeff[1] d3 <- (y3)*m3 + b2 l3 <- paste(l3, sprintf("%.3f",m3*12),"C/decade") l4 <- "Jan 1975 - Dec 2009" t4 <- hadcrut3[1501:1920,3] y4 <- ly[1501:1920] m4 <- lm(t4 ~ y4)$coeff[2] b4 <- lm(t4 ~ y4)$coeff[1] d4 <- (y4)*m4 + b4 l4 <- paste(l4, sprintf("%.3f",m4*12),"C/decade") png("nova-hadobs-trends-1.png", width=600, height=400) tit <- "The trend repeats?" subt <- "http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly" plot(hadcrut3[,3] ~ ly, type="l", ylab="HadCRUT3 Monthly Anomalies", xlab="", col="gray", main=tit, sub=subt) lines(d1 ~ y1, col="red") lines(d2 ~ y2, col="red") lines(d3 ~ y3, col="red") lines(d4 ~ y4, col="blue") legend(1930,-0.6, c(l1,l2,l3,l4), cex=0.75) legend(1850,0.7, sprintf("%.3f",m1*12), cex=1.5, col="red") legend(1910,0.7, sprintf("%.3f",m2*12), cex=1.5, col="red") legend(1960,0.7, sprintf("%.4f",m4*12), cex=1.5, col="red") dev.off() #----------------------------- l1 <- "Jan 1860 - Dec 1879" t1 <- hadcrut3[121:360,3] y1 <- ly[121:360] m1 <- lm(t1 ~ y1)$coeff[2] b1 <- lm(t1 ~ y1)$coeff[1] d1 <- (y1)*m1 + b1 l1 <- paste(l1, sprintf("%.3f",m1*12),"C/decade") l2 <- "Jan 1910 - Dec 1939" t2 <- hadcrut3[721:1080,3] y2 <- ly[721:1080] m2 <- lm(t2 ~ y2)$coeff[2] b2 <- lm(t2 ~ y2)$coeff[1] d2 <- (y2)*m2 + b2 l2 <- paste(l2, sprintf("%.3f",m2*12),"C/decade") l3 <- "Jan 1975 - Dec 1998" t3 <- hadcrut3[1501:1788,3] y3 <- ly[1501:1788] m3 <- lm(t3 ~ y3)$coeff[2] b3 <- lm(t3 ~ y3)$coeff[1] d3 <- (y3)*m3 + b2 l3 <- paste(l3, sprintf("%.3f",m3*12),"C/decade") l4 <- "Jan 1975 - Dec 2009" t4 <- hadcrut3[1501:1920,3] y4 <- ly[1501:1920] m4 <- lm(t4 ~ y4)$coeff[2] b4 <- lm(t4 ~ y4)$coeff[1] d4 <- (y4)*m4 + b4 l4 <- paste(l4, sprintf("%.3f",m4*12),"C/decade") png("nova-hadobs-trends-2.png", width=600, height=400) tit <- "The trend repeats?" subt <- "http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly" plot(hadcrut3[,3] ~ ly, type="l", ylab="HadCRUT3 Monthly Anomalies", xlab="", col="gray", main=tit, sub=subt) lines(d1 ~ y1, col="red") lines(d2 ~ y2, col="red") lines(d3 ~ y3, col="red") lines(d4 ~ y4, col="blue") legend(1930,-0.6, c(l1,l2,l3,l4), cex=0.75) legend(1850,0.7, sprintf("%.3f",m1*12), cex=1.5, col="red") legend(1910,0.7, sprintf("%.3f",m2*12), cex=1.5, col="red") legend(1960,0.7, sprintf("%.4f",m4*12), cex=1.5, col="red") dev.off() #----------------------------- l1 <- "Jan 1857 - Dec 1879" t1 <- hadcrut3[85:360,3] y1 <- ly[85:360] m1 <- lm(t1 ~ y1)$coeff[2] b1 <- lm(t1 ~ y1)$coeff[1] d1 <- (y1)*m1 + b1 l1 <- paste(l1, sprintf("%.3f",m1*12),"C/decade") l2 <- "Jan 1910 - Dec 1944" t2 <- hadcrut3[721:1140,3] y2 <- ly[721:1140] m2 <- lm(t2 ~ y2)$coeff[2] b2 <- lm(t2 ~ y2)$coeff[1] d2 <- (y2)*m2 + b2 l2 <- paste(l2, sprintf("%.3f",m2*12),"C/decade") l3 <- "Jan 1975 - Dec 1998" t3 <- hadcrut3[1501:1788,3] y3 <- ly[1501:1788] m3 <- lm(t3 ~ y3)$coeff[2] b3 <- lm(t3 ~ y3)$coeff[1] d3 <- (y3)*m3 + b2 l3 <- paste(l3, sprintf("%.3f",m3*12),"C/decade") l4 <- "Jan 1975 - Dec 2009" t4 <- hadcrut3[1501:1920,3] y4 <- ly[1501:1920] m4 <- lm(t4 ~ y4)$coeff[2] b4 <- lm(t4 ~ y4)$coeff[1] d4 <- (y4)*m4 + b4 l4 <- paste(l4, sprintf("%.3f",m4*12),"C/decade") png("nova-hadobs-trends-3.png", width=600, height=400) tit <- "The trend repeats?" subt <- "http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly" plot(hadcrut3[,3] ~ ly, type="l", ylab="HadCRUT3 Monthly Anomalies", xlab="", col="gray", main=tit, sub=subt) lines(d1 ~ y1, col="red") lines(d2 ~ y2, col="red") lines(d3 ~ y3, col="red") lines(d4 ~ y4, col="blue") legend(1930,-0.6, c(l1,l2,l3,l4), cex=0.75) legend(1850,0.7, sprintf("%.3f",m1*12), cex=1.5, col="red") legend(1910,0.7, sprintf("%.3f",m2*12), cex=1.5, col="red") legend(1960,0.7, sprintf("%.4f",m4*12), cex=1.5, col="red") dev.off()