In this presentation, I will demonstrate that the Sun drives climate, and use that demonstrated relationship to predict the Earth’s climate to 2030. It is a prediction that differs from most in the public domain. It is a prediction of imminent cooling.

Archibald mentions that he smoothed annual averages, but does not recall the exact method. Examining several different smooths, the best fit I could find was a 3 year moving average, which fits well in recent decades, but diverges somewhat in middle decades while maintaining a similar variation throughout. I cut the station data at the year 2003, the last year shown on the original chart. This fit is shown below.

Having found a reasonable fit to the station data, I turn next to the "Projected Temperature Profile to 2030." The pre-2003 rural US data set has been further smoothed and, strangely, cooled by about 0.5C. This may be due to some sort of averaging with the solar smooth shown earlier in the presentation. Nevertheless, I found a lowess smooth (f=0.04) of the 3 year moving average creates a reasonable likeness of the 2030 projection chart. I have added the post-2003 data points and the continued lowess in red.

This is not a perfect reconstruction by any means. The data sets are not the same. The range appears to be different. The visual matching may be impaired by poor scaling in the background images. Nevertheless, it should be adequate for qualitative comparisons of future observations to the original temperature projection.

Combining the rural US data set we saw earlier and the projected temperature response to the length of Solar Cycle 23, this graph shows the expected decline to 2030. The temperature decline will be as steep as that of the 1970s cooling scare, but will go on for longer.