a, Fraction of the Earth surface with high robustness (black, R>0.8), no significant change (blue) and inconsistent model responses (red) illustrated for December–February precipitation change for CMIP3 and CMIP5. Fractions are shown as a function of global temperature change rather than time, which largely eliminates the differences in scenarios. Maximum achievable robustness is calculated for CSIRO and CanESM2 initial condition ensembles (see the main text and Methods). b, The same as for a but for a subset of 11 models from 11 institutions participating in both CMIP3 and CMIP5 (see Supplementary Table S1). c, The same as for b but for land alone. Results for June–August look very similar.